Greenhouse gas emissions from the European Union economy rose slightly at the start of 2026, even as economic output remained flat, according to the latest Eurostat

figures.

Seasonally adjusted emissions reached an estimated 837 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in the first quarter, up 0.3% from 835 million tonnes in the final quarter of 2025. Over the same period, EU GDP recorded no quarterly growth.

The figures underline the uneven relationship between economic activity and emissions across the bloc, with some of the largest increases coming from the energy sector while households and several major economic sectors reduced their carbon footprint.

The sharpest quarterly rise was recorded in electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply, where emissions increased by 4.8%.

By contrast, household emissions fell by 1.3%, while emissions from manufacturing and transport and storage each declined by 0.6%.

Despite the quarterly increase, the longer-term comparison was more favourable. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, EU greenhouse gas emissions were 1.2% lower, while GDP was 0.8% higher.

Estonia records steepest increase

Between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, emissions increased in 20 countries, while seven recorded reductions.

The largest falls were reported in Slovenia, down 5.0%, followed by Luxembourg, down 3.8%, and Romania, down 2.7%.

At the other end of the scale, Estonia recorded the strongest increase, with emissions rising by 9.7%. Finland followed with a 6.4% increase, while Bulgaria recorded growth of 4.6%.

Eurostat said the increases in Estonia, Finland and Bulgaria were largely linked to higher emissions from economic producers in construction and the electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply sector.

The latest figures also show that rising emissions did not always coincide with weaker economic performance. Of the 20 EU countries where emissions increased during the quarter, 18 also recorded GDP growth.

Among the seven countries where emissions fell, four nevertheless posted either higher or stable GDP.

The data provide a mixed picture for the EU's climate transition: emissions remain below their level a year earlier and the economy has continued to expand over that period, but the modest quarterly rise in emissions shows that the bloc's economic growth is still accompanied by pressure on its greenhouse gas targets.

Source: Eurostat, quarterly estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and GDP. Photo by Petr Štefek, Wikimedia commons.