EU sees rise in migrant returns even as exit orders fall
The European Union recorded a notable shift in migration enforcement trends at the end of 2025, as the number of people actually returned to non-EU countries increased—even while fewer were told to leave.
According to the latest quarterly data, 117,545 non-EU citizens were ordered to leave EU countries in Q4 2025, while 33,860 individuals were effectively returned to third countries following such orders.
That marks a 6.1% drop in expulsion orders compared with the same period in 2024. Yet, at the same time, returns rose by 13% year-on-year, suggesting improved enforcement or cooperation with countries of origin.
On a quarter-to-quarter basis, both indicators declined slightly. Orders to leave fell by 4.4% compared to Q3 2025, while returns edged down by 0.9%.
Who is most affected?
The data highlights clear patterns in nationality:
Most ordered to leave:
- Algeria: 12,455
- Morocco: 7,385
- Türkiye: 5,225
Most returned to third countries:
- Türkiye: 3,155
- Georgia: 2,390
- Syria: 2,105
This gap between orders and actual returns reflects a long-standing challenge in EU migration policy: not all expulsion decisions lead to successful deportations.
Which EU countries issue the most orders?
Enforcement varies significantly across member states.
Top countries issuing orders to leave:
- France: 34,040
- Spain: 12,380
- Germany: 10,720
Top countries carrying out returns:
- Germany: 7,690
- France: 3,800
- Sweden: 2,870
The figures suggest that while some countries issue many orders, others are more effective at carrying them out.
What this says about EU migration policy
The data reflects broader developments in EU migration policy, which has increasingly focused on improving return rates—a key priority for policymakers.
1. Push for More Effective Returns
For years, the EU has struggled with low return rates, often below 30–40%. The rise in returns in late 2025 may indicate:
- Stronger readmission agreements with third countries
- Increased coordination through agencies like Frontex
- More political pressure to enforce migration rules
2. The New Pact on Migration and Asylum
Recent reforms under the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum aim to:
- Speed up asylum decisions
- Tighten border procedures
- Make returns more systematic and enforceable
The uptick in returns could be an early signal that these policies are beginning to take effect.
3. Ongoing Challenges
Despite progress, major obstacles remain:
- Some countries of origin refuse or delay accepting returnees
- Legal appeals and human rights protections slow procedures
- Political divisions persist among EU member states
The bigger picture
While fewer migrants were ordered to leave in Q4 2025, more were actually returned—an important distinction that points to greater efficiency rather than stricter enforcement alone.
This shift may indicate that the EU is gradually closing the gap between policy and implementation. However, with migration remaining a politically sensitive issue, the balance between border control, legal rights, and humanitarian obligations will continue to shape the bloc’s approach in 2026 and beyond. Photo by Francesco Placco, Wikimedia commons.